Wednesday, 31 August 2011

A Modest Proposal: The Fed Dead Mice Trade that Saves Greece and Therefore The World [Sarcasm on]

1. Joseph Coterill of FT Alphavile has a couple diagrams of the Finnish proposal to collateralise Greek assets. He discusses the negative pledge problem which basically says that Greece is not allowed to seek further foreign law bonds that are prejudicial to existing foreign law bonds. And if Greece doesn't get a waiver of this clause from the bondholders and then gets another foreign law bond, then it will be in default. Beautiful self snooker.


Source: Joseph Coterill (Aug 30, 2011) http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/30/664341/finlands-greek-collateral-plan-breaks-negative-pledge/

Coterill then states that the Finns are spinning this negative pledge block into an opportunity to obtain more credit enhancement. So question is who and what will be used for credit enhancement? Earlier today, Zerohedge made the same point from a bit broader perspective:

"So instead the country's banks need direct foreign capital. However, this capital needs hard collateral pledged. Collateral which would have value in a worst case scenario, i.e., liquidation. Instead, what the EFSF has offered as "collateral" is the equity of the very same firms which will be immediately insolvent once this house of cards collapses, sending the bank equity collateral worthless, and buried under billions of debt liabilities, and in turn impairing the ECB which suddenly finds itself with hundreds of billions in worthless Greek paper, making additional funding for Finland, once it finds itself in a liquidity crisis, next to impossible."

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-ponzi-takes-twist-wacky-greek-bank-equity-be-used-loan-collateral


Source: Ibid.

3. How about a super credit enhancement? Why not borrow some AA+ US treasuries using the US Fed recently re-opened swap lines? A fiat currency denominated debt paying 100% value (after whopping fat Swiss commissions of course) for Greek assets. During TARP, the US Fed conducted the "dead mice" trade where it would pay 100% for RMBS having no tradable value. The US Fed could, should and maybe even would again "save" the world by accepting the "dead mice" from Greece. By the way, this does not have a nice ending.

Recommended reading: Kindleberger on Manias, Panics and Crashes.




Good Contracts: Moral Principle 2 - Commutative Justice

1. St. Thomas Aquinas identified 3 virtues which serve as criteria for determining whether a contract qualified as morally good. In a previous note, we detailed the first virtue called Promise-keeping. In this note, we investigate the second virtue, Commutative Justice. And in a future note, the third, liberality.

2. Commutative Justice is the most conceptually mathematical of the three virtues. Commutative simply means that which relates to exchange, substitution or interchangeability. In mathematics, to say something commutes means that we can change the order of operations and obtain the same result. This idea is central to how we think of operations in the abstract, and generally speaking, when we say we can be sure something is the same as another, it is probably because we would also hold that there is a commutative relation to our beliefs. We'll speak a lot more about commutativity when we investigate Category Theory. But for now, we examine St Thomas' not so primitive bifurcated concept of commutative justice. First, the Arithmetic and then, the Geometric.

3. Arithmetic Commutative Justice. The Arithmetic arises in a bilateral exchange formation. When two parties exchange goods for value, the Arithmetic justice is simply that the value between the parties should be relatively equivalent or balanced. The notion of balancing equivalence probably comes from the act of using scales to measure a point of equivalence by approximating the point of equivalence by adding (or subtracting) lesser weights In this way, fairness can be found by the operation of addition. For about 8 centuries, this concept of fairness in bilateral exchange comes back frequently in the law, despite attempts to relegate it into meaninglessness under 19th century morally de-linked interpretations of contracts. See, for example, the doctrine of "nominal consideration" where mere legal recital of a valued for exchange is sufficient to overcome the bar of unfairness. Note also that in more recent consumer contract legislation from the mid-1960's, there are explicit attempts to bring back this sense of fairness where there is very unequal bargaining power between the corporate monopolistic price-setter and debt-addicted consumer slave. In a high powered radical reconceptualisation of Arithmetic Commutative Justice (ACJ, please forgive the acronym because life is too short to spell everything out explicitly), we see its reflection in a Risk Symmetries Framework where the x-axis is Perceived Risk and the y-axis is Definition (i.e. Increments of information) where horizontal line segments divided into equivalent length left and right segments relative to a middle vertical line represent a fair trade of perceived risk. Under a Risk Symmetries Framework, we have the theorem: Equivalent bilateralisation of perceived risk between two parties at the same level of Definition results in a commutative risk trade. This will become clearer much later on--hopefully, I can explain what this means clearly enough so we can use it in a natural way to understand risk in our daily lives. Some of my students know that I have an 80 page unpublished paper on the Risk Symmetries Framework which explains modern finance theory and behavioural finance theory locked up in my drawer which is based on answering the question, "What is the fundamental unit of psychological space that preserves risk?" When I wrote it, I thought it could be based on group theory. Now, I realise that that was much too narrow a view. Anyway, this is a digression. Let us return to commutative justice of the Geometric kind.

3. Geometric Commutative Justice (GCJ). If ACJ involves two parties, then GCJ involves groups of three or more. Just as we are concerned with distribution in ACJ so are we with GCJ. The question is naturally how to distribute equally among many. Aristotle and St Thomas appear to be socially or social structurally conservative on this point. Note when Aristotle uses the term "individual," he means the class of individuals. So distribution to various groups means distribution in proportion to those classes or groups of individuals. Compare the normativity of say Rawls' second formulation of his principle of justice wherein we are asked to imagine the most socio-economically deprived class of individuals in society, and to not implement any law that would do harm to such a group. The Aristotelian-Aquinian position by contrast would say that so long as the distribution to the various groups in society replicated the hierarchical structure of society, that would be considered just. For Aristotle and St Thomas, we have a ready reckoning tool where geometric justice simply means to replicate the interests of those in the existing social hierarchy while for Rawls, everyone is tasked to become a Socratic philosopher questioning every law for the sake of protecting those most vulnerable to its effects. What may be interesting is to determine which groups various presidential candidates intend to replicate. For example, Obama appears to exaggerate the differences between groups in the socio-economic hierarchy (classic class war rhetoric) and for this reason, he appears geometrically commutatively unjust to all groups in society. Strange place to be in? Obviously, back room deals with Wall St and war mongering without Congressional approval just don't add up for all Americans.

Monday, 29 August 2011

Moral Virtue NĂºmero Uno: Promise-keeping->Detecting Frausters->Gravest Punishment is Being Laughed Out of Court

1. In the St Thomas Aquinian view of the moral foundations of contracts, there are 3 virtues: (1) promise-keeping, (2) commutative justice and (3) liberality. A contract may be said to be good morally if it satisfies at least one of these criteria. In a previous note, I had defined these virtues. I'd like to argue that fraudsters are simply those who can't keep promises. Now, there is a lot of research on "how and why people lie" but the main points of this note are on "How to detect fraudsters?" and "What to do after detection?"

2. Fraudsters are easily detected by simply checking their references. Madoff, the $60 billion fraudster who got a 150 year jail sentence lied convincingly all the way up to the day he confessed. I heard that Judge Denny Cheng, who handed out the sentence was swayed by evidence showing Madoff's hardened heart. On the day before publicly confessing, a widow with a handicapped daughter told Madoff that she was giving him all her money and that this was all they had to support herself and her daughter. Madoff put his arm around the lady and whispered, "Don't worry. I'll take care of you and your daughter." He took her money and the next day announced to the world he was broke. I researched Madoff (and created a 50-page anti-fraud checklist based on a complaint against Madoff's main feeder fund called Fairfield --this could be useful to investors and fund managers and I have parked it in my computer) and found that one of the reasons he was able to dupe people is because the duped never bothered to check his references! In Europe, he would name 6 US banks and in the US, he would name 6 European banks. The duped never bothered to check. The bankers who did check never did business with Madoff. In today's world, you should be very careful about physical gold, gold funds and hi-return sovereign bond funds. Anyone selling you these are very dangerous, indeed!

3. What to do with a fraudster after you've detected one? This depends on you. Remember a fraudster is a bit charming, so in the majority of meetings, you will end up paying. Remember nothing is for free and that deals that "have no risk" or offer an abnormal rate of return, or something for which you don't need to pay the full price either or both in terms of time or money, are simply "junk." One of the insanely funny things I learned while trading as an investment banker is that I couldn't trust my "boss" or his "boss" to tell me the truth about anything that affected my personal welfare. I learned to take statements such as "believe me" from my superiors to be the strongest sell signals! I recently experienced a very similar incidence of this sort of funny behaviour at a university. And when I use to employ people, I found they would dip their hands in the cookie jar. In governance theory, we call this the agency problem. The classic agency solution is to offer employees a stock option scheme! Laughable, no? Will a stock option scheme eradicate dishonesty, lies, cheating and stealing? I don't think so.

4. Best is to be vigilant. In Aikido, if someone had broken the code of conduct, eg, broken a promise to a Sensei, stolen from the dojo, lied in public etc., the punishment was quite amazing. The punishment wasn't a stripping of one's rank or being thrown out of the dojo or even a demotion. The gravest punishment was to be called before the senior teachers and for the teachers to "laugh." No fraudster wants to be laughed at. It means he or she cannot be taken seriously. Next time you come across a fraudster, try laughing. It usually is disconcerting enough to spill the beans.

Sunday, 28 August 2011

Friday, 26 August 2011

n-Financial Theology: Banks at Trimalchio's Feast and How to Hold Members of the US Fed Personally Liable For Misrepresentation under the 1913 federal Reserve Act

1. The CDS spread over libor tells us BARCLAYS is being adjudged worrisome amongst its peers:


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-warren-archimedes-buffetts-amazing-24-hour-monster-bank-america-due-diligence-sessio

2. Yesterday, Warren Buffet after a day due diligence entered into a sweetheart deal with Bank of America. Remember how Warren saved Goldman Sachs back in 2008? The hoi polloi back then thought if Warren could do it then he was both heroic and patriotic. Now, his move on BAC may be interpreted not as a savvy trade but as one of those moves of a sick empire. My reference here is Trimalchio's Feast in Petronius' Satyricon. [By the way, the best modern translation of that end of Empire novel is Fellini's film rendition.] It's grating to read the management of BAC saying they need no capital and that Warren's capital injection therefore was unnecessary. Then why accept it in the first place? And why allow him such a gigantic upfront premium to get in? For my law and finance students, here's the disclosure document dated August 25, 2011: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000119312511232422/dex11.htm

For a more journalistic interpretation, see: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-26/buffett-s-bofa-investment-is-latest-to-capitalize-on-wall-street-weakness.html

And of course, for a more sarcastic wit and invective which can inform your trading view, see zero hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-warren-archimedes-buffetts-amazing-24-hour-monster-bank-america-due-diligence-sessio


3. Two other "events" as in Badiou's Being and Event are worth mentioning today: (1) Greece has tapped its emergency loan facility which means really, really, this time we are just a hair away from either a bank run or amalgamation of banks or revolution based on bank-government fraud catching up to depositors who are still crazy enough to hold deposits and (2) Ben Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech which the Market is discounting a "no QE3". Even if he announces a QE3, it is largely irrelevant to the NON-HUMAN BEINGS, because the ALGOS built by 20-year olds have taken over. Look at Dell's 10,000 unhit bids yesterday! The Capital Markets - What use to be the crowning glory of free capitalism ideology has become totally dissociated from productive capital, merely serving as a distraction for the guests at Trimalchio's last dinner.

4. 1, 2 and 3 are data feeds to grand models which might be called EXISTENTIAL MODIFIERS. See for example: Bostrom's works on "existential risk": http://www.existential-risk.org/concept.pdf and The future of humanity: http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf.
There are also a number of complexity theorists seeing a strong correlation between food prices and riots and wars. Duh.

5. A much more interesting form of "for public activist research" would be to see whether the members of the US Fed could be held civilly liable for misrepresentations under Title XII, Ch 3, Subchap XVI, Sec 503. See: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/12/usc_sec_12_00000503----000-.html





Monday, 22 August 2011

n-Financial Theology versus n-Financial Wars -- Vitae Summa Brevis

1. Since 99.99...% (practically all) of our moneyed transactions are based on debt, debt as a convention decreed into existence from nothing has become our reality. For the last great word on how we realise consciousness from the reality created by convention, see Nagarjuna's Mulamadhyamakakarika (Fundamental Verses of the Middle Way). Debt bondage is what made Buddha come back to this plane of existence to extinguish all the promises he had made in all of his previous incarnations, and only then, could he move on as genuinely liberated. Socrates the Enlightened Master of Western philosophy startled all those at his hemlock induced death, by rising one last time to say, "Crito, we owe a cock to Asclepius. Please don't forget to pay the debt." I always tell young people to pay off their mortgages early to achieve partial financial freedom. Note how Obama would have more and more people enslaved by delaying their payments due. I'm sure he thinks he is doing the right thing which means I believe he is delusional but really what he is advocating is MORAL BANKRUPTCY.

2. Now bondage has a bit more impersonal and generalised meaning in this BOND-AGE. Fiat money is no more than the desires of civilisation through the BELIEF in writing on paper and electronic phosphorescence. It is both the greatest convenience since it is relatively costless and the greatest risk, since if it fails to be believed, it is worthless. Thus, money in the sense of fiat currency and as objects of belief may perhaps best be studied as a subject of SOCIAL ANTHROPOLOGY and/or as a matter of THEOLOGY. Many (most? all?) of the doctrines espoused by politicians, central bankers, investment bankers (i.e., high priests of the swirling academic neighbourhood gangs/thugs who advocate "war" for socio-economic salvation eg PAUL KRUGMAN or reparations of busted business cycles with moderate inflation to signal Americans out of DEPRESSION, such as BEN BERNANKE) cannot even begin to conceive of a world without fiat currency. Why? Because think of what would happen to the world if $600 trillion of derivatives based on fiats needed to be unwound. Maybe nothing returns. After all the equation is: Inconceivable Amount x Inconceivable Unwind = Inconceivable Whatever.

3. What's next? Personally, I keep on bugging my wife for us to buy a small farm with its own well. In any case, I liquidated all investment exposures to fiat back in 2006. There're Irish farmlands plus farm houses for about 70k EURO. "vitae summa brevis spem nos vetat incohare longam" (The total of life's brevity forbids us clinging to long-off hope). Horace, Odes, I.4

Saturday, 20 August 2011

n-Riots, Spinoza, Cannibalism: Not Prison but Non-PC Love

1. Damasio the neuro-physician in his book, Looking For Spinoza, describes a scene in Spinoza's rather cloistered life where on a beautiful day in the freest of free thinking Holland, an angry mob captured a city official and not only killed him, but ate him.

2. Spinoza hardly ever left his small room and many of the finest minds in Europe would visit him. He had worked out an ethical philosophy which is probably of rank with Aristotle's and according to Damasio, Spinoza's description of human feelings are consistently accurate with current neurophysiological research.

3. But I'm wondering what Spinoza would have made of the London riots in August 2011? Would he have been surprised? Back in Spinoza's time, Holland had just experienced a terrible economic down-turn and people were literally starving. But in London at the time of the riots, the young people were looting shops for kit and goods they could sell on the web, the street or to friends. The kids were "bragging" of their loot as if they were trophies.

4. This reminds me of some anthropological explanations of head-hunting and cannibalism. I've never met a hunt-hunter, but I did meet a student at Oxford who claims that his great-grand-mother told him that "white meat is a bit sweet like succulent pig." Hmm. And I devoured (pun intended) a number of ethnographies on tribes in Papua New Guinea. The explanations for head-hunting differed radically but all revolved around (1) some liminal rite determining a division between in- and out-group where the actor would need to enact or participate in particular prescribed behaviours, and (2) some rite of incorporation where the actor upon completion of said prescribed acts, would then enjoy certain new "rights," "privileges," and "immunities." By performing the prescribed acts, the actor moved from outside to the inside group. As you can imagine, most of these ritualised acts appeared rather dangerous.

5. There are some commentators saying that riots can be explained in terms of a "gangsta culture." I think that this would be at best a very loose affiliation--much like saying one's actions on a Sunday football pitch comes from the fervour of belonging to a particular football team, and not the types of ritualisation that's normally required to become a member of an in-group. But then again, some football parents do bare their teeth!

6. Bottom-line: Will London have more riots? Probably, yes. What can we do to help lessen the risk of future riots? Lock children up until they are 30? Well, there are lots of studies showing that prisons are the best breeding grounds for recidivism. So, no. Locking up children and youths is just stupid in the longer term but convenient to score political points in the short term.

7. A bit of non-PC love is in order from the mum or pop. Oh yes, one question you can always teach children is to ask before taking anything that isn't theirs. If the child doesn't understand this concept then unfortunately you simply have a cannibal on your hands! Sarc/off.